Climate projections for 2030s (2021-2050) and 2080s (2071-2098) have been derived from PRECIS (Providing Regional Climate for Impact Studies), which is a desktop version of the HadRM3 model with a grid resolution of 0.44° x 0.44°. PRECIS simulation dataset is provided by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune. The climate change scenarios are driven by the GHG emission scenarios - A1B which assumes a future world of very rapid economic growth, a global population that peaks in mid-century and declines thereafter, and assumes rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies. Change in precipitation and temperature in 2030s and end of the century 2080s have been derived with respect to 1970s (1961-1990).
Temperature: The average surface daily maximum temperatures, in the period 2030s is projected to rise by 1.8-2.0oC throughout Madhya Pradesh and the daily minimum temperature is projected to rise between 2.0oC to 2.4oC during the same period; the eastern half of the state experiencing more warming than the western half. By 2080s, the maximum temperature is projected to rise between 3.4oC to 4.4oC with northern region experiencing warmer temperatures. The minimum temperatures are likely to rise by more than 4.4oC all over Madhya Pradesh.
Rainfall:Projections of rain fall in Madhya Pradesh for the period 2021 to 2050 indicates that there is likely to be decrease in winter rainfall as one movse from eastern part of MP to western part of MP. In pre-monsoon period, the rainfall is increasing only in the Southern part of MP, with decrease in rain fall in all other parts. In the Monsoon period, there is a slight increase in rainfall all over MP (the increase being 1.25 times the rainfall observed in the current climate), and with no change in the Morena, Shivpuri, Bhind, Gwalior area.
During post monsoon period, slowly again the western end of MP is likely to face decrease in rain fall, with no change or little increase in rainfall in most other parts of the state. In 2100 there is an overall increase in rain fall with southern states likely to receive more rain fall in the northern states. The increase in rain fall during the post monsoon and pre monsoon periods are projected to be more than the increase in rain falls projected for the monsoon period.
Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Study of Madhya Pradesh
According to IPCC, vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude and rate of climate variation to which a system is exposed; its sensitivity; and adaptive capacity (IPCC, 2001) and vulnerability of a system refers to its physical, social and economic aspects and it varies across regions, sectors and social groups. Understanding the regional and local dimensions of vulnerability is therefore essential to develop appropriate and targeted adaptation efforts.
The study of Vulnerability Assessment for Madhya Pradesh was a preliminary attempt to assess the preparedness of the districts of Madhya Pradesh to cope up with the climate change vulnerability issues and board the development pathway. Since vulnerability to climate change is a comprehensive multidimensional concept affected by large number of related indicator which could be related to market, population and other socio-economic factors acting simultaneously together with climate change, it was ensured while deciding on the methodology and indicators that these aspects were also considered in the Vulnerability Assessment.
The study confirms that Madhya Pradesh is one of the most vulnerable states in India with forest, agriculture, water and health sectors being highly sensitive and exposed to climate change on both spatial and temporal scale. The analysis of the pattern of vulnerability of districts in Madhya Pradesh also shows that almost all the districts except for few western districts are highly vulnerable to climate change. This is explained by the greater exposure to drought and climate extremes as well as low levels of technology and socio-economic and infrastructure development. The maps below shows the composite vulnerability for different district of MP as well district wise ranking for the same.
Madhya Pradesh State Action Plan on Climate Change
For the effective implementation of National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC, 2008) at state levels as well as to address regional climate change issues the states were advised to develop State Action Plan on Climate Change in line with the NAPCC. Taking cognisance of the climate change projections as well as the vulnerability assessment study, the Government of Madhya Pradesh has proactively prepared MP State Action Plan on Climate Change.
The MP SAPCC formulation followed a bottom-up approach which involved cross sectoral stakeholder consultations convened at the state level with respective line departments and regional consultations at agro-climatic zone level. The sectors that were reviewed for integrating climate change concerns in their respective planning included Agriculture, Horticulture, Animal husbandry, Fisheries, Water, Forest and Biodiversity, Rural Development, Energy, Renewable Energy, Health, Urban Habitat and Transport, Industries and Environment. The draft was subjected to reviews by sectoral experts as well as departments and suggestions received were duly incorporated.
MP SAPCC aims to address the regional concerns and to outline strategies required to develop a climate resilient state. The strategies and recommendations of the SAPCC will, in due course, strengthen the developmental planning process of the state with policy level interventions favouring low carbon growth. Since vulnerability and adaptation (V&A) have been underlined as the key concerns for Madhya Pradesh, the focus of SAPCC is on devising appropriate adaptation strategies based on vulnerability assessment and subsequently integrating and mainstreaming them into respective policies and programmes.
The strategies and activities proposed in the MP SAPCC by and large conform to the actions proposed in the respective mission documents of the NAPCC. The MP SAPCC has being reviewed by the expert committee constituted by the MoEF, it has also has being endorsed by the National Steering Committee, GoI, Climate Change, MoEF. Executive summary of the MP SAPCC is enclosed. A robust monitoring and evaluation framework has being suggested in the MP SAPCC. (A copy is uploaded on www.epco.in).
Pilot Projects as part of MoEF- GIZ project ‘Climate Change Adaptation in Rural Areas of India’
As part of MoEF-GIZ Project, two projects are being implemented by reputed NGOs in two districts of the state. The details of the project are as follows:
- Enhancing livelihood security against climate change of fisherman under Meenakshi sub scheme of MGNREGS – project site Dhar : The proposed pilot aims at assessing and developing systems and mechanisms for climate proofing the Meenakshi sub scheme of MGNREGS, and also develops financial instruments, including micro insurance and/ or self-financed products that will enable the fishermen to absorb the risk arising out of climate variability for their livelihood.
- Climate Change Adaptation through ecological security at landscape level – project site Mandla : The project attempts to work upon the aspects of ecological security, focusing upon efficient and judicious use of resources, development of desired climate proof land use and taking up critical interventions which would make the village institution organized and take charge of the village development but also it attempts to energize the existing development programs like MGNREGS by developing climate proof plans for them.
State Climate Change Knowledge Management Centre
The strategies outlined in SAPCC would be implemented by respective departments wherein the strategies of the Cross Cutting issues fall mainly under the management of Housing and Environment Department, GoMP. One of the most important activities for the department is setting up of State Climate Change Knowledge Management Centre (SCCKMC). A Detailed Project Report (DPR) outlining a framework for effective implementation and functioning of SCCKMC has been developed. The mission of the SCCKMC has been articulated to serve as a functional knowledge hub, catering to the information and knowledge needs of policy makers, scientific community and general public on climate change issues.
Community Based Climate Innovation Pulse Centre (CCIPC)
The 11 agro-climatic zones of the state offer a great opportunity for devolution of the SCCKMC activities and hence creation of eleven Climate Innovation Pulse Centers in each of this agro-climatic zone is proposed. Community Based Climate Innovation Pulse Centre (CCIPC) is envisioned to be a community managed centre for data and information collection from and dissemination to the lowest unit of administrative management from the district level and then finally to the SCCKMC for up streaming the learning and down scaling the solutions. ( agro Climatic Map of MP can be used here)
Team at Climate Change Cell, EPCO
Mr Lokendra Thakkar, Coordinator, CC Cell
Mr Manohar Patil, Assistant Engineer
Ms Rajita Kurup, Project Fellow
Mr Manish Singh, Project Consultant
Ms Sonal Khare, Project Consultant
Mr Saransh Bajpai, Assisstant
